The 2022 Bitcoin Pattern Is Back — and the Second Drop Was Worse Than the First

May 24, 2026 - 23:08

A familiar and troubling chart pattern from 2022 has resurfaced in Bitcoin's price action, and the latest leg down has been even more severe than the initial decline. Ran Neuner recently appeared on The Wolf Of All Streets podcast with Scott Melker to break down the setup, and the episode title captured the mood bluntly: "Bitcoin To $40K? Saylor's Big Bet Is Breaking."

The argument rests on a single uncomfortable observation that many investors have tried to ignore. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin experienced a sharp initial crash, followed by a dead cat bounce that lured buyers back in. Then came the second drop, which was deeper and more drawn out than the first. According to Neuner, that same sequence is playing out again right now. The first major selloff earlier this year shook confidence, but the recent decline has already exceeded that move in percentage terms, and the recovery has been weaker.

Neuner pointed out that the current price action mirrors the structure of late 2022, when Bitcoin eventually fell to around $15,500 after a series of lower highs and lower lows. He warned that if the pattern holds, the next target could be in the $40,000 range. The podcast discussion also touched on Michael Saylor's aggressive accumulation strategy and whether MicroStrategy's massive Bitcoin holdings are now at risk of becoming a liability if the downturn accelerates.

Not everyone on the show agreed with the bearish outlook. Some argued that institutional adoption and the upcoming halving event create a fundamentally different environment than 2022. But Neuner stuck to his charts, noting that technical patterns do not care about narratives. He said the market is currently in a "show me" phase, where price action must prove the bulls are right rather than the other way around.

For now, the pattern is back, and the second drop has already hurt more than the first. Whether this cycle ends the same way as 2022 remains to be seen, but the warning signs are hard to ignore.