Inflation in February: Prices expected to have held steady, but then war broke out

March 11, 2026 - 05:44

Economists are forecasting that the key Consumer Price Index report for February will reveal inflation held relatively steady, continuing the cooler trend observed at the start of the year. The data, compiled before the recent geopolitical conflict escalated, was expected to show only modest monthly increases, offering a signal that persistent price pressures might be easing.

The anticipated figures would follow a January report that came in lower than many analysts had predicted, providing some relief to households and policymakers alike. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, was also projected to show a tempered rise.

However, this snapshot of the economy is now viewed as a historical artifact, capturing a moment just prior to significant global disruption. The subsequent outbreak of war has dramatically altered the economic outlook, casting uncertainty over future inflation trajectories. While the February data itself may indicate stability, its relevance is overshadowed by new and potent pressures on global energy and commodity markets that emerged in early March. The focus has swiftly shifted from analyzing past data to forecasting the substantial impact of current events on prices in the months ahead.